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THE MARKETPLACE
Understanding the Consumer Confidence Index
Imagine that you are talking with your neighbor in your backyard, and you mention that you and your wife are shopping for a new car, you are getting ready to refinance your house and your wife’s brother recently lost his job. Your neighbor tells you he was recently promoted, his wife is starting a business and his daughter just bought a new computer. What kind of analysis about the health of the U.S. economy could an economist make based on your backyard conversation? Well, that depends on what the conversation suggests about consumer confidence.
The mention of recent or upcoming purchases of a computer and a car suggests strong consumer demand. Your plan to refinance your home is a positive sign for the future, implying that you are confident in your ability to meet future mortgage payments. The refinancing suggests also the possibility of lower mortgage payments, which could mean an increase in your discretionary income. Your neighbor’s promotion and the start of his wife’s new business are also positive economic signs.
The only negative reference during the conversation was the mention of one person who recently lost a job. But, from the other information exchanged between you and your neighbor, the economist might conclude that consumer confidence is high, which is good news for the economy because, on average, consumers are responsible for two-thirds of the nation’s economic activity, or the gross domestic product (GDP).
Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence, measured by the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), is defined as the degree of optimism on the state of the economy that consumers (like you and me) are expressing through their activities of savings and spending.
In the most simplistic terms, when their confidence is trending up, consumers spend money, indicating a healthy economy. When confidence is trending down, consumers are saving more than they are spending, indicating the economy is in trouble. The idea is that the more confident people feel about the stability of their incomes, the more likely they are to make purchases.
How the Data is used
Manufacturers, retailers, banks and the government monitor changes in the CCI in order to factor in the data in their decision-making processes. While index changes of less than 5% are often dismissed as inconsequential, moves of 5% or more often indicate a change in the direction of the economy.
A month-on-month decreasing trend suggests consumers have a negative outlook on their ability to secure and retain good jobs. Thus, manufacturers may expect consumers to avoid retail purchases, particularly large-ticket items that require financing. Manufacturers may pare down inventories to reduce overhead and/or delay investing in new projects and facilities. Likewise, banks can anticipate a decrease in lending activity, mortgage applications and credit card use. When faced with a down-trending index, the government has a variety of options, such as issuing a tax rebate or taking other fiscal or monetary action to stimulate the economy.
Conversely, a rising trend in consumer confidence indicates improvements in consumer buying patterns. Manufacturers can increase production and hiring. Banks can expect increased demand for credit. Builders can prepare for a rise in home construction and government can anticipate improved tax revenues based on the increase in consumer spending.
Conclusion
Since consumer spending is so important to the nation’s financial health, the Consumer Confidence Index is one of the most accurate and closely watched economic indicators. The index is based on a survey of five questions posed to 5,000 households, measuring their optimism on the health of the economy. The CCI, however, is a lagging indicator, so, whatever the survey says, remember that it doesn’t tell us what is going to happen but what has happened and if it can be expected to continue.
source: Investopedia
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